Trump's tariffs added 2.9 points to US goods inflation, New York Fed study finds

New York Fed economists Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise and David E. Weinstein estimate that President Trump’s tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to US consumer-goods inflation through February 2026 — and that without the levies, goods prices would have fallen slightly, according to research published by the bank on 6 October.

The study finds each one-percentage-point rise in average tariffs lifts consumer-goods prices by about 0.25% a year later. Nearly 90% of a tariff increase passes through to import prices almost immediately; about half of the retail effect appears within three months and nearly all within six. The indirect effect — tariffs raising prices of US-made goods as producers pay more for parts and face less import competition — more than doubles between six and twelve months, and accounts for roughly one-third of the overall increase.

The upward pressure peaked near 3% in February 2026, then eased to about 2% by August after the Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under emergency powers, replacing them with a lower 10% surcharge, as CNBC reported.

The authors had previously found that US companies and consumers bore most tariff costs earlier this year, a conclusion sharply criticised by Trump officials. The full effect of a tariff takes about a year to appear in consumer prices, the study says — and while the inflationary effect fades, price levels stay higher.