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World

Hurricane Vance strengthens off Mexico, forecast to become major Category 3 storm

Hurricane Vance strengthened off Mexico's Pacific coast on Friday and is forecast to briefly reach Category 3 strength on Saturday, with dangerous surf expected along southern Mexico.

By James Calloway · · 1 min read

NHC seven-day tropical weather outlook map for 23 October 2026 showing Hurricane Vance as a red hurricane symbol off Mexico's Pacific coast
National Hurricane Center (NOAA), public domain

Tropical Storm Vance became a hurricane early on Friday, reaching sustained winds of 85 mph by about 3 a.m. CST while centred roughly 440 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, the US National Hurricane Center said. It was moving north-northwest at about 6 mph, with rapid intensification expected through the day. (https://weatherscope.com/news/hurricane-vance-strengthens-southwest-storms-in-focus-weather-briefing-for-october-23-2026)

By 15:00 UTC, winds had risen to 90 mph (150 km/h) and central pressure fallen to 979 hPa, with satellite imagery showing a well-defined central dense overcast and very cold cloud tops. (https://watchers.news/2026/10/23/hurricane-vance-continues-strengthening-south-of-mexico-forecast-to-reach-category-3/)

The NHC forecast Vance to briefly reach Category 3 intensity, with winds near 115 mph (185 km/h), around 12:00 UTC on Saturday, then weaken to Category 2 by early Sunday, though forecasters cautioned confidence was low as cooler water and rising wind shear could interrupt the strengthening. (https://watchers.news/2026/10/23/hurricane-vance-continues-strengthening-south-of-mexico-forecast-to-reach-category-3/)

No coastal tropical-cyclone watches or warnings were in effect, but the NHC warned swells would reach southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and persist into next week, producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Outer bands were already funnelling gale-force winds and rough seas into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. (https://www.geo.tv/latest/688010-tropical-cyclone-vance-to-rapidly-intensify-into-major-hurricane-as-it-nears-mexico)

Vance should approach the Puerto Vallarta area by Monday. It is the 13th Pacific Basin hurricane this season and the first V-named eastern Pacific storm since 2018; at Category 3 it would be the seventh major hurricane in a row this year in the Pacific, after Nolo, Odalys, Polo, Rachel, Simon and Trudy. El Niño conditions worsened by global warming have supercharged tropical development, forecasters say. (https://newsline24.online/vance-major-category-3-hurricane-friday-nears-mexico-137502017/)

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