UK on course to miss reduced aid target by about £410m in 2027, analysis finds

The UK is on course to miss its target of spending 0.3% of national income on international aid by about £410m by the end of 2027, analysis by the Center for Global Development (CGD), reported by The Guardian on Monday, finds.

The target, set at the last spending review, reduces official development assistance (ODA) from 0.5% of gross national income (GNI) in 2024 to 0.3% by 2027. CGD’s central forecast, based on the Treasury’s September survey of independent forecasters, puts the shortfall at about £410m, with spending reaching just under 0.29% of national income rather than 0.3%.

The gap arises because higher-than-expected inflation has pushed projected nominal national income above the baseline used at the spending review, CGD says. Its central estimate puts 2027 GNI at £3,262 billion, against £3,127.9 billion in the original March 2025 forecast, so meeting 0.3% would require £9.79 billion of aid rather than £9.38 billion.

Across CGD’s scenarios, the shortfall ranges from £250m in the lowest-growth case to £580m in the highest, when aid would reach only 0.28% of national income. A 2025 policy change also removed the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office’s automatic role as spender and saver of last resort for aid budgets, CGD notes.

CGD says £400m would be enough to halve planned cuts to Africa, and urges ministers to allocate additional funds in Wednesday’s Budget. The Office for Budget Responsibility publishes its updated forecasts on 28 October, the same day as the Budget.

Sources: https://www.cgdev.org/blog/will-uk-miss-its-much-reduced-aid-target | https://www.thebrief.news/en/standard/article/36328/uk-on-course-to-miss-aid-spending-target-by-estimated-400m