China's Q3 growth beats forecasts at 4.5% as exports offset weak demand

China’s economy grew 4.5% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday, beating the 4.4% forecast in a Reuters poll and improving on the more-than-three-year low of 4.3% recorded in the second quarter (Reuters).

Growth for the first nine months of the year reached 4.6%, leaving the economy on track for Beijing’s annual target of 4.5% to 5.0%, according to CNA. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP rose 1.2%, against forecasts of 1.1% and the second quarter’s 0.9%.

September data showed industrial output up 5.5% year on year, in line with forecasts, while retail sales rose 1.1%, ahead of the 0.6% expected and August’s 0.4%. Fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in the January-September period, and property investment dropped 20.6%, deepening from the 19.9% fall in the first eight months.

“The steady economic performance from the first three quarters has laid a good foundation for the achievement of the annual target,” Mao Shengyong, deputy director of the NBS, told a press conference in Beijing, while cautioning that the international environment was volatile and domestic demand insufficient (SCMP).

Analysts described a “two-speed economy”, with strong factory output and exports masking weak consumption and private investment (Reuters). September exports surged 36.3% on semiconductor products and automobiles, with the trade surplus hitting $938 billion for January to September (Nikkei Asia). Beijing has allocated 550 billion yuan ($82.28 billion) in unused government debt quotas to support growth.