Middle East oil exports surpass pre-war levels as Hormuz bypass routes hit full capacity

Middle East oil exports, excluding Iran, have surpassed their pre-war levels for the first time since the United States and Israel launched their offensive against Iran at the end of February, according to data from the maritime tracking firm Kpler published on Monday.

The weekly average of shipments rose for several days last week above the pre-conflict average of 18 million barrels per day, Kpler said. Crude oil exports had already reached pre-war levels in September, with at least 16.5 million barrels per day leaving the region excluding Iran.

“Forty percent now bypass Hormuz, and most crude crossing the strait changes tankers offshore,” Kpler said, adding that most of the oil flowed through Saudi and United Arab Emirates pipelines. Flows via the Red Sea are increasingly being used to bypass the blockade Iran is attempting to impose on Hormuz, through which around a fifth of the world’s petroleum supplies passed before the conflict.

Saudi Arabia has benefited from the reactivation of its East–West pipeline, which links the kingdom’s main oil fields in the east to its Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea, allowing it to bypass Hormuz entirely. The pipeline was shut down on 11 September after being hit by strikes launched from Iraq and resumed operations on 22 September, Kpler analyst Amena Bakr said. The United Arab Emirates can also bypass the strait via its pipeline linking Abu Dhabi’s fields to Fujairah, a terminal just outside the strait on the Gulf of Oman.

Despite the rebound, experts stressed that the situation was far from normal, and Iran remains deprived of a large share of its own exports by a US counterblockade of its ports. The Strait of Hormuz remains the scene of repeated attacks on shipping, with tankers struck by unidentified projectiles in recent days.