El Niño heat could kill half a million people by February, scientists project
A new projection combining mortality data with seasonal forecasts estimates El Niño-driven heat will cause 240,000 extra deaths by February — 450,000 in total since June, with Africa hit hardest.
El Niño-driven heat could cause around 450,000 deaths worldwide by February, climate scientists have projected — though the figure depends on seasonal forecasts holding.
Researchers led by Emily Grover-Kopec combined a 2022 study that divided the world into 24,000 regions and mapped the temperature–mortality relationship for each, with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ seasonal outlook, New Scientist reported.
Their modelling suggests 240,000 additional heat-related deaths over the six-month forecast period from September to February. Adding the toll estimated to have already occurred since the current El Niño began in June takes the total to 450,000.
Africa is expected to be hit hardest, with more than 30,000 extra deaths projected in Nigeria alone in the next six months. The team also projects 19,000 extra deaths in Indonesia, 16,000 in India and 13,000 in Brazil over the same period.
The over-65s are the most sensitive group, followed by children aged 4 and under, though Grover-Kopec says: “There are effects across all three age groups.”
Christopher Callahan of Indiana University Bloomington, who recently used a similar method to estimate June’s European heatwave killed 20,000 people, said he finds the results plausible: the relationship between heat and mortality is “consistent and reliable across the world”.
The caveat: the projection rests on the forecast being right — Grover-Kopec notes ECMWF’s sits in the middle of other forecasts, “a moderate view”. And the report covers heat deaths only; El Niño also drives wildfires, flooding and disease, Callahan points out, so the true toll may be higher.
Sources
- New Scientist: “El Niño heat could kill half a million people by February” — https://www.newscientist.com/article/2590260-el-nino-heat-could-kill-half-a-million-by-february-and-more-after-that/
- Climate Impact Lab (University of Chicago) report, via New Scientist; Europe deaths figure attributed by New Scientist to The Guardian.
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