Pakistan's unfrozen glacial lakes jump from 40 to 105 in under two months, Suparco warns
Pakistan's space agency says the number of unfrozen glacial lakes grew from 40 to 105 in less than two months, warning of rising glacial lake outburst flood risk as some lakes exceed their recorded maximum extents.
The number of unfrozen glacial lakes in Pakistan has grown from 40 to 105 — an increase of 65 — in less than two months, according to satellite imagery assessed by the national space agency between July and August, Dawn reported.
The Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (Suparco) said in a press release that 40 lakes were observed unfrozen on July 2, but the latest assessment — based on temporal satellite imagery, with the most recent image acquired on August 5 — found 105 unfrozen. “At present, 105 lakes are observed to be unfrozen, compared with 40 lakes reported earlier,” the agency said, adding that a few lakes had exceeded their previously recorded maximum extents.
The August assessment identified 131 potentially dangerous glacial lakes, with locations supplied by the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa disaster management authority, the Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority and Wapda’s Glacier Monitoring and Research Centre. All lakes were mapped on optical satellite imagery to estimate surface area and determine whether they were frozen or unfrozen, though Suparco noted that persistent cloud cover after July had limited cloud-free imagery.
A glacial lake becomes a greater concern when its water extent expands beyond its historical maximum, which may indicate increased water storage and a higher likelihood of moraine dam instability — raising the risk of a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). Authorities were advised to maintain high preparedness, particularly in downstream valleys of potentially dangerous glacial lakes, with monitoring to continue through the melt season and results shared with the Ministry of Climate Change’s technical committee on GLOF monitoring.
Dr Karamat Ali, a glaciologist at Karakoram International University who has studied glaciers for two decades, told Dawn that “glacial melt is a serious concern” and that field studies of glacier depth, surroundings and end moraines were needed because “mere satellite imagery will not suffice”. Mohammad Saleem Shaikh, spokesperson for the Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination, said rapid warming across the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya region was “fundamentally altering Pakistan’s cryosphere” and accelerating glacier melt.
A 2024 glacier inventory found Pakistan is home to more than 13,000 glaciers — one of the largest concentrations outside the polar regions. The 105-unfrozen-lakes figure was independently confirmed to a Senate climate committee on September 22, The Express Tribune reported.
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