New MRP poll puts Labour on 353 seats as Reform vote slides
The Electoral Calculus–PLMR poll has Labour on 28%, Reform on 21% and the Conservatives on 18%, predicting a Labour majority of 56 seats.
A new MRP poll puts Labour on course for a 56-seat Commons majority, with Reform UK’s vote sliding and the right splitting.
The Electoral Calculus poll for PLMR — fieldwork 25 September to 2 October 2026, with 6,699 GB adults polled online by Find Out Now — places Labour on 28%, ahead of Reform on 21% and the Conservatives on 18%.
On those figures, Labour would win 353 seats, the Conservatives 90 as the official opposition, Reform 81, the Liberal Democrats 70, the SNP 28, Plaid Cymru five, the Greens four and Restore Britain one.
Labour has risen from 17% to 28% since the January PLMR poll, while Reform has fallen from 31% to 21% — partly, the pollsters say, because of growth in support for Restore Britain.
The poll identifies cabinet ministers at risk: Shabana Mahmood could lose her seat to the Greens; Conservatives Chris Philp and Rebecca Paul are vulnerable to Labour, while Victoria Atkins and Kevin Hollinrake could fall to Reform.
Tactical voting could cost Reform dozens of seats — without it Reform would take 86 seats and be the official opposition — but Labour would hold a majority either way.
PLMR founder Kevin Craig said the figures show Andy Burnham’s leadership resonating with voters. Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus called it a remarkable reversal of fortune for Labour, noting the right remains split: a Conservative–Reform pact would still win only 171 seats, less than half of Labour’s predicted 353.
Find Out Now, Electoral Calculus and PLMR are all members of the British Polling Council.
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