Reform UK plunges to third as YouGov MRP puts Labour on top
YouGov's new seat-by-seat MRP poll puts Labour on 241 seats, the Conservatives on 130 and Reform UK third on 123 — a dramatic reversal of last year's projection.
Reform UK would slip to third place in the Commons if a general election were held now, according to a new YouGov MRP poll — a dramatic reversal for Nigel Farage’s party, which was projected to take the most seats a year ago.
The large-scale seat-by-seat survey of around 14,000 respondents, conducted between 23 August and 18 September, puts Labour on 241 seats, ahead of the Conservatives on 130 and Reform on 123. The Liberal Democrats would take 71 seats and the Greens nine in a hung parliament.
Labour would fall 85 seats short of the 326 needed for an outright majority, while the Conservatives and Reform combined would muster only 253 — 73 short.
The poll marks a stunning turnaround from YouGov’s September 2025 MRP, which projected Reform on 311 seats, Labour on 144 and the Tories on 45. Reform’s vote share has fallen from 27% to 22% amid the rise of Restore Britain on its right and financial scandals, while the Tories have risen from 17% to 21% and Labour under Andy Burnham is up three points to 24%.
Reform defectors Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman would lose their seats back to the Conservatives, and even a pact between the two right-of-centre parties would not deliver a majority.
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch told LBC she believed Burnham would call an election in December, calling him a “gambler” — though the prime minister’s allies insist no snap poll is planned. Labour’s conference begins on 27 September in Liverpool.
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