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World

Flávio Bolsonaro officially wins Brazil's first round as pollsters miss badly; runoff confirmed for 25 October

With 99 per cent of votes counted, Brazil's electoral court confirmed Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round with about 47.3 per cent against Lula's 44.8 per cent, setting a 25 October runoff — and exposing a major polling miss.

By Sarah Whitfield · · 1 min read

Flavio Bolsonaro raising his fist on stage as supporters celebrate his first-round election win
Photo: Ankara24

Brazil’s electoral court has officially confirmed a 25 October presidential runoff after Senator Flávio Bolsonaro beat President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Sunday’s first round — a result the country’s pollsters failed to foresee.

With about 99 per cent of votes counted, the 45-year-old Bolsonaro took roughly 47.3 per cent of valid votes against about 44.8 per cent for the 80-year-old incumbent, according to Superior Electoral Court (TSE) figures reported by the Wall Street Journal and Fox News. Neither reached the 50 per cent needed for an outright win. The court had Bolsonaro on just over 55.8 million votes to Lula’s nearly 53.2 million, the Economic Times reported.

The outcome was a major polling failure: on the eve of the vote, Datafolha had put Bolsonaro at 42 per cent of valid votes against 45 per cent for Lula — an inversion of the actual result. Bolsonaro swept Brazil’s three largest states, leading 52–38 in São Paulo, 50–43 in Minas Gerais and 53–39 in Rio de Janeiro. Conservatives also scored major wins in the concurrent congressional and state elections.

Both candidates now have three weeks to court moderate voters ahead of the runoff. The next presidential term begins on 5 January 2027.

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