Danish intelligence warns of 'low but growing risk' of limited Russian attack on NATO country

Denmark’s defence intelligence service has warned of a “low but growing risk” that Russia could launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries bordering Russia in the coming months, even while the war in Ukraine continues.

The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) published the updated threat assessment on Thursday, presented at a press conference by its chief, Thomas Ahrenkiel. The agency said Russia would likely intensify its hybrid war against the West in the coming months, carrying out more frequent attacks “with greater consequences for the affected countries than in the past” (Reuters).

The assessment outlined possible forms of a limited attack: isolated strikes with long-range weapons such as drones or missiles on infrastructure supporting Ukraine; false-flag operations using Ukrainian-made drones; or a small deployment of troops into a NATO border area, potentially under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities. The agency said the aim would be to divide NATO rather than seize territory.

DDIS still considers an outright Russian invasion “highly unlikely” but says it “cannot be ruled out”, noting an invasion would likely require at least six months of preparation (Straits Times).

The warning follows Germany blaming Russia for an attempted drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport and an incident in which a Russian frigate fired flares towards a Danish military helicopter. Moscow has repeatedly denied involvement in hybrid warfare or sabotage.

NATO’s supreme commander, US Air Force General Alexus Grynkewich, told Reuters the alliance was stepping up intelligence-sharing and that it should be “calm and confident” it could manage the threat (Reuters).

Sources

• Reuters — Denmark expects Russia to escalate hybrid warfare in coming months
• Reuters — NATO steps up intelligence-sharing over Russia threat
• The Straits Times — Russian invasion of NATO country ‘highly unlikely’ but cannot be ruled out
• Kyiv Independent — Denmark warns Russia could escalate hybrid attacks against NATO
• Free Malaysia Today — Denmark expects Russia to escalate hybrid warfare
• The Guardian — Russia could attack a Nato country within months, Danish intelligence says