Hurricane Rachel's forecast path now reaches Southern California as remnants approach

The National Hurricane Centre has extended the forecast path for Hurricane Rachel, a Category 1 storm in the eastern Pacific, into Southern California. After days drifting out to sea, Rachel is expected to slow, then turn sharply north-east towards Baja California and the California coast, pulled by an upper-level trough.

It will not arrive as a hurricane. The NHC forecasts Rachel’s remnants reaching the region early on Sunday, 11 October, as a post-tropical system, with moisture through Tuesday, 13 October. The cone’s northern edge reaches as far as Anaheim, and the centre warns that hazardous conditions can occur outside the cone.

Rain is expected across Los Angeles and Ventura counties from 9am Sunday to 9am Monday, with up to 2 inches possible in the eastern Los Angeles County mountains and around half an inch widely. The NWS puts the thunderstorm chance at 5–10% on Sunday and Monday.

The NHC warns Rachel’s swells will build along the Southern California coast through the weekend, producing “life-threatening surf and rip current conditions”. The NWS has issued a beach hazards statement and coastal flood advisory for San Diego County, with waves of 3 to 5 feet and sets to 6 feet.

Rachel is the 22nd storm of the eastern and central Pacific season, which began on 15 May, under a strengthening El Niño — and Tropical Depression Twenty-E formed on 7 October. Climate scientist Daniel Swain said “potential outcomes still range from ‘dry’ to ‘rare October rain and windstorm’” for places like San Diego.