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World

Pakistan braces for 25pc water shortage in Rabi season starting 1 October

Pakistan is bracing for a water shortage of around 25 per cent during the Rabi season starting this week, with reservoir carryover below 9.5MAF — the lowest since 2021 — raising food-security concerns as wheat is the season's main crop.

By Sarah Whitfield · · 2 min read

Pakistan is bracing for a water shortage of around 25 per cent during the Rabi season starting this week, raising concerns about food security next year as wheat is the season’s main crop.

The last Rabi season faced no water shortage, yet the country is estimated to have suffered a wheat shortfall of more than two million tonnes. This forced the government to order imports of one million tonnes, including 750,000 tonnes in the first phase for delivery in November. Against a production target of 29.7m tonnes and consumption requirements of 31.9m tonnes, the country is estimated to have produced around 27.5m tonnes.

Part of the estimated Rabi water shortage is man-made, owing to the political needs of the coalition government, informed sources told Dawn, adding that more than one million acre feet of avoidable water releases were made from reservoirs during the outgoing Kharif season. The sources said parliamentary interventions had allowed higher discharges to Sindh with commitments for subsequent adjustments in provincial shares, which could not be materialised within the Kharif season.

Total storage in the two major reservoirs peaked at 11.6MAF on 9 September, when Tarbela remained full at its 5.8MAF capacity between 9 August and 9 September while Mangla touched 5.733MAF. Both reservoirs started depleting since then, with total storage falling below 9.5MAF ahead of the Rabi season — the lowest carryover since 2021. Last year the season started with 13MAF, almost 27pc higher.

The technical committee of the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) will meet on Monday (today) to finalise water availability estimates and recommend distribution criteria among the provinces. The Irsa Advisory Committee has been tentatively called to meet on 5 October to approve provincial water shares.

The anticipated shortages are likely to revive provincial acrimony, particularly between Sindh and Punjab, as Irsa seeks to allocate water under the three-tier formula it uses to manage shortages. Under the formula, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are exempt from shortages, leaving the shortfall to be shared by Sindh and Punjab; Sindh maintains it bears a disproportionately larger shortage and opposes the mechanism.

Sources

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