New Texas polls show Talarico stretching lead over Paxton in Senate race

Democrat James Talarico is leading Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas US Senate race in a run of new polls released in the last week, suggesting the contest is genuinely competitive with less than six weeks to go before the Nov 3 general election.

The freshest survey, from Texas Public Opinion Research and released on Friday Sept 25, puts Talarico five points ahead: 49% of respondents backed Talarico compared with 44% for Paxton. The poll surveyed 1,007 likely Texas voters between Sept 19 and Sept 23. It is a slight narrowing from the six-point advantage Talarico held in TPOR’s August poll.

Independent voters are driving the Democrat’s advantage. The TPOR poll shows Talarico up by 32 points among independents, 58% to 26% — a bloc that is proving decisive in the race. Paxton continues to lead among white voters over 55, while Talarico holds the edge among Black and Latino voters, voters under 55, college-educated voters, and both men and women.

The same poll asked which candidate would do a better job of tackling the affordability crisis and improving the situation for everyday Texans: 49% said Talarico, against 42% for Paxton. On issues related to data centres and artificial intelligence, 45% said Talarico would do better versus 40% for Paxton.

A Marist Poll released on Sept 23 tells a similar story with a wider margin. Among 1,139 Texas registered voters surveyed Sept 17–20, Talarico leads Paxton 50% to 44% — outside the poll’s 4.4-percentage-point margin of error. The Marist survey puts Democrats within reach in both of Texas’s biggest contests: in the governor’s race, Democrat Gina Hinojosa leads Republican incumbent Greg Abbott 49% to 46%, though that is a statistical tie within the margin of error.

That would be a historic upset. Texas has not elected a Democrat to a statewide office since 1994 — more than 30 years. But caution is in order: Marist also found that, regardless of whom they support, 52% of Texas voters overall think Paxton will actually win the Senate race.

The narrowing is confirmed by a third survey. The Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University found Talarico just one point ahead, 47% to 46%, in a poll of 1,800 likely voters conducted Sept 15–19 — effectively deadlocked. That poll’s demographic breakdown shows where the race is being won and lost: Talarico leads among women by 11 points, among voters under 35 by 58 points, among Latino voters 57% to 38%, and among Black voters 87% to 10%. Paxton leads among voters 55 and older by 20 points.

Paxton’s weakness appears to be inside his own party. While 99% of Democrats say they plan to vote for Talarico, only 84% of Republican voters say they will vote for Paxton, with 7% crossing over to Talarico, according to the Texas Southern survey.

It is part of a consistent September picture. USA Today’s running tracker shows Talarico ahead in every September poll: ReconMR (49–43), Emerson College (47–46), Mason-Dixon (46–43), SoCal Strategies (50–45), AARP (48–44), and N+ Univision (48–43) — leads ranging from one to six points.

The economy is the contest’s dominant issue. Across recent surveys, affordability and the economy top voters’ concerns ahead of the Nov 3 election, with 38% of Texas voters telling Marist their personal finances have worsened over the last year.

Sources

• El Paso Times: Talarico holds edge over Paxton as Texas US Senate race tightens — https://www.elpasotimes.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/09/25/james-talarico-and-ken-paxton-battle-for-momentum-in-texas-us-senate-race/91937362007/
• USA Today: New poll puts Texas Senate, governor’s races in play for Democrats — https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/09/23/marist-texas-us-senate-gonveror-race-poll/91904745007/
• El Paso Times: Talarico maintains slim edge in closely watched Texas US Senate race — https://www.elpasotimes.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/09/23/james-talarico-ken-paxton-test-voter-support-in-texas-us-senate-race-tsu-poll/91888808007/