US officials see Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 as unlikely, Reuters reports

US officials believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely despite Chinese President Xi Jinping’s instructions for his military to be ready by 2027 to take the island by force if needed, Reuters reported on Thursday in an exclusive by Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali.

The assessment, which has not previously been reported, is based on interviews with two current US officials, one former US official and a person familiar with US thinking, all speaking on condition of anonymity. The main reasons: delays in military readiness amid the Chinese Communist Party’s anti-corruption campaign, and Beijing’s eagerness to see the results of Taiwan’s 2028 election.

Beijing may increasingly look to use force in 2028 and beyond if Taiwan’s election sees the Democratic Progressive Party win a fourth consecutive term — and in particular if President Lai Ching-te wins re-election, the officials said. “If that happens, I think 2028 becomes pretty sporty,” one official said.

The Pentagon declined to comment; China’s foreign ministry and its Washington embassy did not respond. Taiwan’s presidential office spokesperson Karen Kuo said Taiwan would strengthen self-defence and work with democratic allies including the US “to maintain the status quo, deter threats through strength, and ensure peace.”

One official said an invasion would be “the most difficult military operation any military has attempted probably since the Allied invasion of Normandy,” noting the PLA was dissatisfied with its own readiness and that China’s anti-corruption campaign has left just two active officials on the formerly seven-member Central Military Commission, including Xi as chair.